MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8baa413b01015e21df1b490c60692276dba6b591985bc8f4166321a991fae94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 35,495$22,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,361.99 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 30,000$11,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,900 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 29,939$19,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,710.23 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 22,747$7,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,013.05 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 2,887$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.56 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 2,222$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.86 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 1,550$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.52 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 1,286$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.54 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 999.93$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.96 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 912.97$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.64 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 663.93$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 652.21$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.89 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 600.17$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.11 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 600$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 563.42$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.7 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 415.8$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 376.54$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.75 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 368.72$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.52 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 332.89$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.9 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 325.81$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.82 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 281.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.84 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 279.95$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.17 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…9a00backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 250.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 232.81$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 203.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 195.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 173.69$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.9 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 143.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.77 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 115.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 115.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 93.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 88.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 78.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 70.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 70.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 79c | 66.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 65.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 64.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…e36bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 63.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 58.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 56.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 55.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…2fa8backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 332 | 28.3%94 W · 238 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 48.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 48.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 42.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 41.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 41.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 38.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…72b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 37.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…2dadbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 35.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 32.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 31.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…b61cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 19.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 18.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.