Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AF Elbasani win on 2026-07-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8e93d2d9693ce97f78ae8beedc36a170635ec6c87a357c47853cb108e06ce8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 58c | 4,530$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.68 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.57 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 39c | 1,141$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.86 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 51c | 1,051$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.09 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 52c | 730.55$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.45 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 61c | 718.53$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.39 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 51c | 689.11$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.46 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 39c | 641$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.01 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 39c | 641$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.01 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 39c | 641$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.01 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 63c | 637.97$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.7 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…b000backed No | 32c | 611.1$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked Yes | 64c | 414.93$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.55 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 40c | 392.18$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.23 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 46c | 335.67$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.54 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 53c | 245$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 41c | 196.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed No | 41c | 160.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Yes | 22c | 151.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 18c | 126.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 39c | 123$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yes | 65c | 114.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 62c | 111.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 38c | 110.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 84.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 45c | 80.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 60c | 73.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 41c | 70.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 67.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 40c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Yes | 64c | 54.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 62c | 52.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 53c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed Yes | 60c | 48.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…a60cbacked Yes | 58c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed Yes | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4aa…f4e5backed No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked Yes | 53c | 34.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37e…2709backed Yes | 78c | 25.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…68f9backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AF Elbasani win on 2026-07-07?this page
- Will AF Elbasani vs. FK BATE Barysaŭ end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FK BATE Barysaŭ win on 2026-07-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.