TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
St. Louis Cardinalsof Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,309
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,309 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs35c1,153$403 inLost-$403.0611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked St. Louis Cardinals65c1,024$666 inWon+$358.42,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs11c337$37 inLost-$37.0712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago Cubs22c300$66 inLost-$661,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals78c296.25$231 inWon+$65.179,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked St. Louis Cardinals69c244.43$168 inWon+$76.751,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Chicago Cubs31c134$42 inLost-$41.5430340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs30c66.13$20 inLost-$208,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs31c65.07$20 inLost-$19.983,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Chicago Cubs19c64.32$12 inLost-$12.2287352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals65c47.68$31 inWon+$16.452,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed St. Louis Cardinals66c45.5$30 inWon+$15.471,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals64c26.19$17 inWon+$9.435,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ed…6232backed St. Louis Cardinals69c24.88$17 inWon+$7.7118244.5%81 W · 101 L-14.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.