TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$279,675
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$284,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,675 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over55c224,016$124,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,003.6946949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under45c46,474$20,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,731.731,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under44c34,151$15,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,117.962,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Under45c33,790$15,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,205.4171650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under45c24,531$11,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,038.8910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under44c14,000$6,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1601,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under45c12,803$5,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,758.733,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Under44c12,500$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50012343.1%53 W · 70 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c8…8f5abacked Under44c9,064$4,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,008.552050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under44c8,076$3,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,535.7811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under44c6,625$2,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,929.611,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under45c5,947$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,655.491,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under45c5,443$2,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,445.34,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under45c5,400$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,43045748.6%222 W · 235 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over56c5,357$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.0821748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Over56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under45c3,635$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.066,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under45c2,322$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.521,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over54c2,212$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.341,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over55c2,048$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.842,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over55c1,944$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.88,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Under44c1,600$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70487750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under45c1,600$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72064452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Under45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67545252.4%237 W · 215 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over60c1,441$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.652,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc279…6465backed Under46c1,356$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.964250%21 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52838353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Under45c1,200$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54056253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under45c1,083$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.231,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Under44c1,007$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.0845445.2%205 W · 249 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Under44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4409642.7%41 W · 55 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee4f…c0f0backed Under21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2105749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Under45c675.79$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.1128751.9%149 W · 138 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa71d…9854backed Under45c638.29$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.234531.1%14 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22059549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under45c430.61$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7747852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under44c418$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.921,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under45c372$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.447350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac6…db45backed Under45c333.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-40.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Under45c288.89$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13039953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Under45c288.89$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13038551.4%198 W · 187 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over69c227.09$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.458,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf3…50a8backed Under45c212.76$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.744231%13 W · 29 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf04b…049abacked Under45c212.76$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.744129.3%12 W · 29 L-6.4wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7a41…f527backed Under45c212.76$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.744131.7%13 W · 28 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over54c181.14$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.0199447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over55c170$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.521449.5%106 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Over57c157.89$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.891,16849%572 W · 596 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under45c150.8$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.862,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over56c136.76$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.669,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed Under45c136.2$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2919555.9%109 W · 86 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb42…176ebacked Under45c133.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over56c128$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9612752%66 W · 61 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked Over56c126.79$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7910465.4%68 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under45c126$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0754642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Under45c117.13$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.763141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Under46c115.82$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.281741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed Under45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013344.4%59 W · 74 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Under45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015147.7%72 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b94…09dcbacked Under45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011441.2%47 W · 67 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Under44c110$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.423255.2%128 W · 104 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd577…c012backed Under45c106.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8714645.9%67 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7218…ea41backed Under45c106.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.874332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4578854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Over57c99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8146444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over56c98.23$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.223,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ed…6232backed Under44c95.63$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9618244.5%81 W · 101 L-14.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under45c90.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.032,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x734e…edbdbacked Under45c79.53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.794252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x282b…cc76backed Under45c74.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5112646.8%59 W · 67 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over55c69.69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.611,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under46c64.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.452,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Under45c61.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7430554.4%166 W · 139 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under45c60.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.122050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Under44c56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6427252.9%144 W · 128 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over59c55.63$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.911,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd6…cfdebacked Under45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over55c55.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7967453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3546…1a58backed Under20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe369…9148backed Under20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f53…12cabacked Under20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a0…2dc3backed Under20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf8…27cfbacked Over56c48.75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.451838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1f…1e14backed Under44c47.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.097565.3%49 W · 26 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under45c46.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.757248.6%35 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.834846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Under45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013152.7%69 W · 62 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d5…ab77backed Under45c43.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.562030%6 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x232f…8002backed Under45c43.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53026.7%8 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-39.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x947d…dff0backed Under45c42.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.153933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1fd…9994backed Under45c42.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.152825%7 W · 21 L-5.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc915…2b84backed Under45c42.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.152425%6 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa4a9…96ecbacked Under45c42.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde36…f41cbacked Under44c41.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4415841.8%66 W · 92 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Under45c36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0af6…ffdbbacked Under44c33.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a2d…fe81backed Over55c32.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.