MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc616e7d27fd78514f2425e683acca19e4c0088c3a42c69ae1502ad3bff7ecdb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4c8…8f5abacked Under | 36c | 7,166$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.72 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 3,568$2,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 3,487$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 74c | 2,050$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.28 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 1,670$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 1,529$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.47 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 36c | 1,024$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.36 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 675.99$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 62c | 561$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.82 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 520.23$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 33c | 485$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 446.84$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 39c | 416.03$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.78 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 64c | 357.99$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.11 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 35c | 289$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.85 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 38c | 287.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.09 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 30c | 200.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 24c | 161.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 38c | 144.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 67c | 141.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 38c | 128$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 30c | 119.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 37c | 99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 62c | 91.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Under | 27c | 74.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 37c | 73.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 26c | 58.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 61c | 54.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 64c | 34.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 62c | 34.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Over | 48c | 29.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 38c | 27.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Under | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.