F1 · resolved market
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc913ebea6818311a7c9729c781b720ca11d905db452c1a95a10ce3fcdcd75ec0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 65c | 916$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 70c | 567.98$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 50c | 564.93$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.46 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…33e4backed Yes | 29c | 354.82$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 39c | 320.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 41c | 263.43$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 53c | 259.97$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…4000backed Yes | 38c | 258.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…d416backed No | 29c | 207.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e4…4fb9backed Yes | 40c | 205.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d4…2059backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 63c | 187.59$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed No | 7c | 187.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.31 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 32c | 168.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…a362backed No | 60c | 165.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…30a6backed Yes | 41c | 162.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 57c | 135$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 25c | 101.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…84ebbacked Yes | 43c | 92.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4886…f7cdbacked Yes | 68c | 88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 40c | 87.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 49c | 67.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 32c | 64.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fff…224dbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…b91ebacked Yes | 42c | 59.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…c8debacked Yes | 49c | 53.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3b1abacked Yes | 36c | 52.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…4073backed No | 69c | 49.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +191.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…e7f0backed No | 61c | 49.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed No | 61c | 48.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…b145backed No | 56c | 35.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…e682backed No | 46c | 33.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 37c | 33.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…d5afbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Yes | 67c | 29.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…b202backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…b283backed Yes | 44c | 24.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed Yes | 45c | 24.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe652…8e2abacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked No | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12c…9cc9backed No | 63c | 22.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 57c | 21.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.