TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Emilio Nava

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Laslo Djereof Laslo Djere, Emilio Nava
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,428
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,428 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd123…d341backed Emilio Nava41c11,783$4,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,814.0324841.5%103 W · 145 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Emilio Nava44c6,200$2,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,745.061,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Laslo Djere60c4,439$2,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.9666139.3%260 W · 401 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Emilio Nava3c3,844$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4529241.8%122 W · 170 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Laslo Djere66c3,807$2,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.394,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Laslo Djere77c3,592$2,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.684,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Laslo Djere71c2,972$2,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.378,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Emilio Nava29c2,398$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.37,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93d…fc9bbacked Laslo Djere57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.3922352%116 W · 107 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Emilio Nava19c1,632$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31062545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce9…61e5backed Laslo Djere72c1,622$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.2211547%54 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Laslo Djere64c1,583$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.064,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Emilio Nava22c1,247$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.828,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Laslo Djere58c1,078$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.6456757.1%324 W · 243 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Laslo Djere69c1,067$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.015,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Laslo Djere58c1,014$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.234057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Emilio Nava43c1,005$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.1553843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Emilio Nava28c995.04$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.9680341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Emilio Nava40c967.97$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.42,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9d3…079fbacked Laslo Djere75c939.31$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.0848855.9%273 W · 215 L-20.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba06…0004backed Emilio Nava19c900$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17115151%77 W · 74 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Emilio Nava40c879.76$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.965651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Laslo Djere58c862.26$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.2694068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Emilio Nava15c843.46$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Emilio Nava39c829.76$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.617139.4%28 W · 43 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfe6…fcc9backed Emilio Nava40c810.35$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.174040%16 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Emilio Nava42c759.99$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.27241.7%30 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Laslo Djere71c746.59$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.486,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Emilio Nava17c699.97$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.193,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf706…f685backed Laslo Djere76c688.93$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.215261.2%93 W · 59 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Emilio Nava43c674.99$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9932851.8%170 W · 158 L+1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Emilio Nava30c650.99$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.032,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa99…f152backed Emilio Nava38c605.47$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22973458.6%430 W · 304 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Emilio Nava40c602$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.3151339.4%202 W · 311 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Laslo Djere60c555.83$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.833,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d91…40d3backed Emilio Nava34c542.91$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7348331.1%150 W · 333 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Laslo Djere60c502.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.4160158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ce…590abacked Laslo Djere57c471.93$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.936041.7%25 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Laslo Djere57c464.92$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.237,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Laslo Djere56c464.1$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.477,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Laslo Djere55c448.88$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.913,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Laslo Djere57c402.11$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9185250%426 W · 426 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Emilio Nava42c400.01$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Emilio Nava25c400$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Emilio Nava26c378.76$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.581,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Emilio Nava25c350.22$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3399244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Laslo Djere61c320$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.854634.4%188 W · 358 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Laslo Djere57c304.39$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8916552.7%87 W · 78 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Emilio Nava44c281.14$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.238931.4%122 W · 267 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Laslo Djere56c261.57$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.0919835.4%70 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Emilio Nava29c249.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.638,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Emilio Nava43c246.12$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8354249.3%267 W · 275 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb897…e44ebacked Emilio Nava25c240$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6021641.7%90 W · 126 L-0.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Emilio Nava22c238.58$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4962952.1%328 W · 301 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Emilio Nava42c219.4$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1532247.2%152 W · 170 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…589abacked Laslo Djere69c216.13$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.061662.5%10 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Laslo Djere67c215.72$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.916,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd2…18bcbacked Emilio Nava20c200.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.182240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Laslo Djere57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Emilio Nava19c195.55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1512836.7%47 W · 81 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Laslo Djere57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4432554.2%176 W · 149 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Laslo Djere57c174.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.81,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Emilio Nava24c166.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4058438.2%223 W · 361 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…0685backed Laslo Djere56c150$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6614757.1%84 W · 63 L-10.3wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Laslo Djere57c145.45$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.081,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Emilio Nava43c139.54$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Emilio Nava30c130.6$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.242,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Emilio Nava36c126.19$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,14247.3%540 W · 602 L+65.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x219c…fed6backed Emilio Nava8c124.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.453537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked Emilio Nava20c122.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2523942.7%102 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20bf…2be9backed Emilio Nava44c120$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.814841.9%62 W · 86 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…2d37backed Laslo Djere58c118$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.569040%36 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Emilio Nava32c115.16$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x017d…94f4backed Emilio Nava44c113$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.72944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b5…7276backed Emilio Nava43c112.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1127147.2%128 W · 143 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Emilio Nava23c104.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.967341.1%30 W · 43 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f57…2282backed Laslo Djere80c100.64$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.236264.6%234 W · 128 L-1.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Emilio Nava40c100.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4021949.3%108 W · 111 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Laslo Djere57c100.16$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.071,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Laslo Djere78c99.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2246556.1%261 W · 204 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Emilio Nava33c97.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.542,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc04c…cebfbacked Laslo Djere79c90.49$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.267178.7%528 W · 143 L+49.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37f1…19a0backed Emilio Nava21c90.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951736.9%191 W · 326 L-39.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked Laslo Djere56c88.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8218551.9%96 W · 89 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Laslo Djere57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7252341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed Laslo Djere58c86.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8419548.2%94 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Laslo Djere58c86.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7818148.1%87 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389d…995fbacked Laslo Djere57c80.48$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7114452.8%76 W · 68 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Emilio Nava18c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.695846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacff…3872backed Emilio Nava39c78.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5110948.6%53 W · 56 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Emilio Nava20c75.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Laslo Djere58c72.68$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.322,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Laslo Djere75c72.22$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0891755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6090…06e0backed Emilio Nava40c71.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.545549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7268…7e00backed Emilio Nava43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-70.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e39…fe16backed Emilio Nava18c66.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1271021.3%151 W · 559 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6557…12c7backed Laslo Djere60c64.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.745341.5%22 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Laslo Djere56c62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0285748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Laslo Djere58c61.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.067,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3172…e940backed Emilio Nava42c59.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511747.9%56 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.