Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc970e82925d75d6697c136c9bc75678f6a019e5a0d22bc138169c19f33ece40e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hamburger SVof SC Freiburg, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hamburger SV | 73c | 14,415$10,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,870.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked SC Freiburg | 29c | 7,014$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.25 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked SC Freiburg | 30c | 1,641$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…7496backed SC Freiburg | 12c | 1,531$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked SC Freiburg | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.92 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed SC Freiburg | 25c | 1,182$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.84 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Hamburger SV | 71c | 932$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.28 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked SC Freiburg | 28c | 814.29$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked SC Freiburg | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…1cfdbacked SC Freiburg | 29c | 310$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed SC Freiburg | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked SC Freiburg | 30c | 181.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Hamburger SV | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked SC Freiburg | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed Hamburger SV | 73c | 128.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Hamburger SV | 70c | 128.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hamburger SV | 71c | 127.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed SC Freiburg | 15c | 124.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Hamburger SV | 71c | 118.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked SC Freiburg | 30c | 103.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed SC Freiburg | 31c | 100.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed SC Freiburg | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked SC Freiburg | 15c | 80.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked SC Freiburg | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed SC Freiburg | 28c | 74.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Hamburger SV | 69c | 70.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Hamburger SV | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Hamburger SV | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed SC Freiburg | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…67a5backed Hamburger SV | 75c | 46.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…ef81backed SC Freiburg | 31c | 39.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Hamburger SV | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Hamburger SV | 70c | 23.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Hamburger SV | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Hamburger SV | 71c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)this page
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.