Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcb2467087da0634193fa9ef23bab05e8236ca2264f4cad63083559037e3ac67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Over | 47c | 10,000$4,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,325.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 48cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 6,593$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,039.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 38c | 5,314$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.4 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 3,072$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.27 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 77c | 2,360$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.8 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 1,206$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.37 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 848.16$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 70c | 750$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 77c | 653.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.25 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 63c | 634.19$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 23c | 511.53$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 69c | 500$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 433.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 23c | 399.94$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…54cebacked Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 76c | 302.8$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed Over | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 47c | 245.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…3054backed Over | 77c | 228.55$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1163…3642backed Over | 77c | 210.38$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 55c | 208.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Over | 48c | 198.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0635…5cb5backed Over | 77c | 188.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 58c | 170.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Over | 77c | 166.03$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…423ebacked Over | 59c | 152.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Over | 76c | 145.58$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c0…5baabacked Over | 77c | 139.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…7eb2backed Over | 76c | 109.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…e7eebacked Over | 76c | 96.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 46c | 87.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 86.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c1…1fc1backed Over | 76c | 75.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Over | 77c | 73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 67c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 77c | 50.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef8…d22cbacked Over | 62c | 48.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…2024backed Over | 59c | 45.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd283…51ecbacked Under | 25c | 42.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…5049backed Over | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…d4e6backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c2…6784backed Over | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed Under | 41c | 32.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…b554backed Under | 35c | 29.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…7253backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 76c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…9e9bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…5802backed Over | 76c | 19.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…b7d7backed Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Over | 77c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 76c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.