TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$296,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$310,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,048 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Under50c159,541$79,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,770.361947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Over50c151,698$75,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,848.984042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under50c51,175$25,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,590.339455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Over50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,000757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under67c27,678$18,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,669.353,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Over31c21,565$6,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,885.75683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.36per pick48cpaid+79.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5873…f69abacked Over30c5,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,500944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked Under50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over50c4,400$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2005653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over51c3,511$1,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.9944749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over39c3,352$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.1975142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Under50c2,386$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1932832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+73.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over50c1,971$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.411,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over23c1,970$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.146142.6%26 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Over51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.785147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked Over50c1,517$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.491154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43de…d169backed Over48c1,515$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.682254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under59c1,406$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.2453645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over38c1,249$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.538630.2%26 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under54c1,054$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.362,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ece…ef2fbacked Over51c972.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under48c946.91$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.478248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under51c791.88$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9451136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x710c…892cbacked Over52c750$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3605100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under54c713.14$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.191,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Over50c685.79$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x290d…503fbacked Under51c619.61$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over50c546$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27330054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under49c541.78$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.476459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under59c507.73$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over51c500.98$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.582755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25016850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Over42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9969…a641backed Over27c500$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3651100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17512952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d4…770ebacked Under51c490.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250140%0 W · 14 L-4.5wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Over51c450$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.55068%34 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over61c427.33$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.825853.4%31 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e5c…e4f6backed Over52c423.08$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.08875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+44.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under47c396.98$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.5833340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc82a…cc74backed Over51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Over51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.162352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under50c355$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.510154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under50c346.51$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.561,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x882e…54cebacked Over61c328.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.42850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14711036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over53c299.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14113142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under48c272$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.567062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Under49c245.85$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4710945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x789b…4c08backed Under70c231.06$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.171735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under53c210.5$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.238946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Over49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.082245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Over44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1126053.3%32 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f2…d776backed Over26c200$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.551631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under49c199.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9915453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over51c174.17$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cea…6e90backed Under61c164.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Over57c159.65$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.651656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Over73c153.23$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.982650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Under49c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Over51c135.29$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over44c134.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.859548.4%46 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over40c131.47$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.78952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Over51c129.41$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.412360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Over39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.216451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc981…a53dbacked Over51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.651040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under45c104.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.338151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under63c101.96$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.241250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe398…ee2ebacked Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503688.9%32 W · 4 L+8.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+31.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Under55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7eb…28a9backed Over51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7d…c3a6backed Under48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x127f…c365backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Under45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Over45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x83fd…cad0backed Over51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Over52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over51c99.85$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6318746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2104…82d7backed Over51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.046063.3%38 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over46c97.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3634655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over51c97.06$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.563847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Over51c96.56$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.315356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Over52c94$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.121844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635a…cccbbacked Over26c93.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+288.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b5f…5e78backed Over51c93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.572259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Under50c92.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.081450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9443…dd60backed Over44c90.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+53.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb85e…e18dbacked Over55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.913250%16 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Over51c85.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.772065%13 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Over51c81.84$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.166251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4017930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Over51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Over51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.433161.3%19 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb5f9…6e1dbacked Over50c78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+87.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under51c75.97$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9816542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Over28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.433633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa0…441abacked Over31c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.33847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over37c67.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.576851.5%35 W · 33 L+10.9wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.