Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35cbbd7396add69a5ce5cba5141a3e5f740d52f321aeb937b54e34b3a52ff6cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 80c | 9,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 7,687$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 2,500$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.66 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 23c | 1,249$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.86 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 28c | 941.47$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.61 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 790.03$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 32c | 314.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 28c | 280$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 68c | 211.8$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 28c | 197.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 72c | 159$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 113.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 71c | 82.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Under | 69c | 72.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 24c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Over | 23c | 61.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed Over | 21c | 55.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 30c | 41.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 41.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 68c | 33.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 73c | 30.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb16…9757backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 78c | 20.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.