Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84c44e07d1dbda468d9a1190d02a435ebe8a94d7d518062440bf02c76e11f01a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked No | 60c | 1,400$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 47c | 879.14$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.25 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 43c | 460$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 55c | 432.82$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.82 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 391.89$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed No | 47c | 304$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba5…5f1cbacked No | 50c | 302.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 46c | 205.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 46c | 185.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 44c | 146.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 53c | 101$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked No | 46c | 74.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 39c | 73.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 38c | 52.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 49c | 40.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…4ed9backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5585backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.