Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9b3a90a169c2e7e747dd2aa2d90b880f0677c53628e4c575255430ed6da72e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb726…4d2bbacked Over | 46c | 3,450$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.12 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…41bebacked Under | 54c | 3,034$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 59c | 1,259$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.15 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 54c | 985.5$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.37 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 64c | 813.64$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.51 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…09f7backed Under | 55c | 363.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.91 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Under | 47c | 286.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 161.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 53c | 160.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 149.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Over | 24c | 120.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…74ebbacked Over | 50c | 100.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 52c | 100.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Over | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Under | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…da3ebacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b9…c68cbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…ca1bbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf93a…8a46backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…ba20backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3)Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.