Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Derry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9def6a6ac06e9f30111ce772fcc49f4dd76d936d89dbdded5a3cb3013c73053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 6,487$3,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.04 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f66fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,005$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Yes | 39c | 2,816$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.27 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,645$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.39 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 76c | 1,126$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.59 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 30c | 1,100$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 70c | 1,080$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.53 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 61c | 1,079$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.63 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed No | 31c | 1,073$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.26 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…33e1backed No | 22c | 1,032$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 47c | 925.84$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.77 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked No | 7c | 845.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.28 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 745.88$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.2 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…5e9fbacked Yes | 67c | 672.65$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 596.17$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.14 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 28c | 436.31$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Yes | 24c | 419.96$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked No | 59c | 382.23$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 19c | 335.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.3 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 65c | 305$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 24c | 299.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed No | 78c | 286.69$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 61c | 275$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 75c | 272.97$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Yes | 25c | 269.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 43c | 255.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 54c | 213.79$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.42 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked No | 39c | 186.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.87 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 17c | 180$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked No | 40c | 163.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdba9…2995backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked Yes | 15c | 152.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed No | 15c | 151.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 29c | 149.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Yes | 68c | 135.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed No | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed Yes | 65c | 117.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 15c | 87.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 63c | 77.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…8efdbacked Yes | 25c | 75.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 72c | 69.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 25c | 68.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed No | 41c | 59.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 34c | 57.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 72c | 56.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8207…af57backed No | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 49c | 47.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 43c | 47.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 76c | 45.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 42c | 44.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…771cbacked No | 75c | 40.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 75c | 34.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…6237backed Yes | 64c | 33.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Yes | 63c | 31.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f6…6ccabacked Yes | 65c | 30.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…ab59backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea76…276bbacked Yes | 79c | 26.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Yes | 44c | 23.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f0…3101backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia end in a draw?this page
- Will Derry City FC win on 2026-07-16?No won
- Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-07-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.