Tennis · resolved market
Fils vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9e5f0edd61993eefdff384054024652100f597e09dac0c46b62df9d65d2e24a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 41c | 6,697$2,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745.89 | 1,143 | 41.3%472 W · 671 L | +23.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…490dbacked Over | 52c | 5,551$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,873.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 50c | 2,019$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.6 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 53c | 2,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 48c | 1,900$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988 | 664 | 44.6%296 W · 368 L | +29.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8087backed Over | 48c | 832.17$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.44 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 714$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.14 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Over | 47c | 417.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.45 | 965 | 41.5%400 W · 565 L | +14.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 265$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ad…dffebacked Over | 42c | 216.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 53c | 189.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 843 | 49.8%420 W · 423 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 53c | 180.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 1,002 | 50.2%503 W · 499 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 147.77$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 5,377 | 48.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 145.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 4,126 | 44.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L | +13.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 56c | 143.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 288 | 48.3%139 W · 149 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Under | 31c | 133.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +36.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 67c | 107.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Over | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a635backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Under | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 52c | 59.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 25c | 49.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,406 | 45.3%637 W · 769 L | +43.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 53c | 48.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 2,404 | 51.7%1,244 W · 1,160 L | +12.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 54c | 44.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…6807backed Under | 66c | 37.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…f876backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…49c8backed Under | 53c | 29.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 461 | 51.6%238 W · 223 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…b7aabacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Under | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc883…4ea1backed Over | 47c | 21.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fils vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5this page
- Arthur Fils vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Frances TiafoeArthur Fils won
- Fils vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fils vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Game Spread: Fils (-2.5) vs Tiafoe (+2.5)Fils won
- Set 1 Winner: Fils vs TiafoeFils won
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Tiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.