Tennis · resolved market
Fils vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c7c48f2c653394e55fbc1b4a4bee3b5860bc18a07d01b4297eae944711a47f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3e4…8087backed Under | 44c | 6,032$2,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,653.44 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 56c | 3,800$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.99 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 37c | 3,337$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.83 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a95…3a16backed Under | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 71 | 69%49 W · 22 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 1,778$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.35 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Over | 54c | 1,250$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.99 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…85f7backed Over | 61c | 983.61$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.61 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Under | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Under | 51c | 412.43$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.34 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Under | 57c | 348.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 295.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 39c | 204.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 306 | 48.4%148 W · 158 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 50c | 156$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…490dbacked Under | 50c | 156$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Over | 61c | 120.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…37d2backed Over | 61c | 80.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 39c | 80.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 52c | 72.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…1a23backed Under | 48c | 72.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…9c0bbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 58c | 27.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fils vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Arthur Fils vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Frances TiafoeArthur Fils won
- Fils vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Fils vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Game Spread: Fils (-2.5) vs Tiafoe (+2.5)Fils won
- Set 1 Winner: Fils vs TiafoeFils won
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Tiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.