Tennis · resolved market
Arthur Fils vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28fe912a8b0fe5adb3c26a957cde660aa4e426e562cd951419f9fda95c14a073
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 1,352$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.07 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8087backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 1,202$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.21 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 962.64$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.84 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…367dbacked Over 2.5 | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…53ffbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 277.78$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 247.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.36 | 4,875 | 41.5%2,023 W · 2,852 L | -77.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 59c | 243.9$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…da77backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 174.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 1,540 | 49.2%758 W · 782 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307e…a827backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 147.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2959…f256backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 145.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed Over 2.5 | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a68…4ff2backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 81.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 664 | 44.6%296 W · 368 L | +29.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under 2.5 | 61c | 81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 1,802 | 58.9%1,062 W · 740 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 78.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 843 | 49.8%420 W · 423 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 45c | 52.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2,399 | 50.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L | +76.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…490dbacked Over 2.5 | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b0…741bbacked Over 2.5 | 41c | 35.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 30.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 990 | 49.4%489 W · 501 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 27.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…1a23backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 23.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…6ed2backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 21.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Under 2.5 | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,773 | 48.6%861 W · 912 L | +28.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 576 | 45.7%263 W · 313 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arthur Fils vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Frances TiafoeArthur Fils won
- Fils vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fils vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Fils vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Game Spread: Fils (-2.5) vs Tiafoe (+2.5)Fils won
- Set 1 Winner: Fils vs TiafoeFils won
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Tiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.