Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca0d30f74fe797781588eab7b3078258b4893f3c03b692a282676c36d4d6c15b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fa1…864bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,635$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 43c | 306$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 17c | 294$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 5c | 288.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 221$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 209$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 190.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 161.5$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 121.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 120.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 115.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 115$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 100.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 98.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 96.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 80.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 37c | 78.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 54.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 48.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 66c | 45.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 45.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 26c | 42.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 41.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 36.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 63c | 31.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 43c | 30.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked Yes | 37c | 29.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 26.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 63c | 22.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 17.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 16.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.