Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2c9660cc4e83d0798756a8314359c5ff1686686f995b0efd053cfb3da8e7067
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 41c | 328.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.14 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 268.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 248.37$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 185.87$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 30c | 175.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 170.69$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.47 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf47…9eb9backed Yes | 34c | 149.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 143.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 121$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 68c | 120.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 99.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 99.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 97.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 97.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 93.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 26c | 87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 79.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 77.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 34c | 76.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 50c | 69.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 58.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 63c | 55.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked Yes | 32c | 54.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 31c | 54.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 35c | 52.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 33c | 52.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 56c | 50.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 50.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 47.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 78c | 45.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed No | 65c | 43.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 35.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 33.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 32.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 31.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 67c | 30.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…7034backed No | 71c | 30.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 69c | 28.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe957…0988backed No | 72c | 27.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 27.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 67c | 25.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 45c | 24.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 24.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 70c | 23.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd938…fa19backed No | 70c | 21.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 71c | 19.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 68c | 18.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 56c | 18.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…23a9backed No | 72c | 17.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 16.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 14.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 14.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.