Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca2c3079fdb17a9765c63766544a02d837a590ae31825bde510ab3fde41de445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f39…93d3backed No | 14c | 922.35$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.42 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 29c | 907.12$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.84 | 1,112 | 43.7%486 W · 626 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 19c | 422$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 22c | 255.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 75c | 250$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 240$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 26c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 199.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…9c16backed No | 17c | 197$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 77c | 170$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 10c | 160.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 36c | 140.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked No | 16c | 125.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked No | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 10c | 114.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 64c | 87.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 76c | 50.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed Yes | 67c | 46.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of November?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $520 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of November?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of November?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of November?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of November?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of November?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.