Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2239272262daf13ac48b5aeb93dc59fd989382fef07eef02897a155fcb1b1c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 11,196$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,090$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.61 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 37c | 1,038$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.27 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 700$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.4 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 41c | 649.52$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.51 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 37c | 589.68$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.77 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 61c | 537.17$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.18 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 22c | 255$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 50c | 243.51$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.02 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…0db6backed Yes | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Yes | 48c | 206.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 27c | 146.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 127.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…a7e7backed Yes | 80c | 116$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed No | 14c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 107.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…771abacked Yes | 78c | 103.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 38c | 103.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…e350backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 25c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…9a43backed Yes | 61c | 64.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 53.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 50.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 70c | 50.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…9c16backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…911cbacked Yes | 56c | 35.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 49c | 34.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…2a26backed Yes | 34c | 32.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 53c | 25.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of November?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $520 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of November?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of November?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of November?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of November?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of November?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of November?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.