MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca2ec2dd5d84e4db6835e6c8561dc40f71fde803ac4d920bce7207417ccf542d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 5,100$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.87 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 72c | 5,090$3,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 3,425$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 59c | 2,808$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets | 64c | 2,202$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.74 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 1,339$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.61 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 882.2$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.77 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 65c | 822.66$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 485.38$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 63c | 442.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 391.98$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.03 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 63c | 355.53$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked New York Mets | 69c | 201.41$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed New York Mets | 62c | 179.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 62c | 175.3$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 68c | 161$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 119.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed New York Mets | 71c | 113.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…9372backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 22c | 96.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 92.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…8ec8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 72c | 73.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Mets | 69c | 71.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 69.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked New York Mets | 70c | 64.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Mets | 73c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 59.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed New York Mets | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 47.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 46.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 43.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 59c | 38.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed New York Mets | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked New York Mets | 72c | 25.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed New York Mets | 63c | 21.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed New York Mets | 63c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets | 71c | 16.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Mets | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.