MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49a86026a3809d7eaa9bcda7461fd1ee73dd6a31b27e1efbab4180b4303605e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 5,435$2,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,843.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 4,395$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,462.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…bf14backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,323$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 57c | 1,168$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.42 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Over | 45c | 909.18$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.13 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 832.49$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.51 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 45c | 753.89$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.25 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 736.48$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 718.26$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.03 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 625.09$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 317.19$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 236$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 26c | 203.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 80c | 123.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 121.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 53c | 68.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 47c | 57.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 65c | 57.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 46c | 55.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Over | 46c | 52.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 45c | 43.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…dddfbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Under | 43c | 37.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88af…a083backed Under | 55c | 28.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 43c | 24.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 63c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Over | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 62c | 19.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 66c | 17.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 80c | 17.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.