MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d5303e9d0d09e926e9559ff50202e95716c6b2c4c620087687312159be6e443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 8,443$4,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,138.23 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 39c | 5,856$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,593.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 51c | 4,379$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,137.24 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 3,824$2,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408.98 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 52c | 3,795$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.36 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 1,943$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.3 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed New York Mets | 44c | 921.36$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.01 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 578$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.14 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 327.79$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 268.73$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.58 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 55c | 224.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.68 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 30c | 217.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 36c | 103.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked New York Mets | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 99.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Philadelphia Phillies | 20c | 95.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 34c | 74.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Mets | 47c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 62.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 59.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 58.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 38.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 32.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed New York Mets | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d98dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 29.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 25.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 24.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 22.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 17.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.