Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca37537b75da58ad580db0be19729df90e23f9b661e6e23cfcd5c0c8faea0283
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 422.11$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 380.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 32c | 337.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 297.38$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 68c | 262.83$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 30c | 206.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 69c | 196.74$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 180.06$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 34c | 171.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 165.83$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 156.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 146$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 32c | 132.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 126.69$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 124.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 32c | 122.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 116.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 65c | 98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 31c | 84.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 32c | 80.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 66c | 80.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 78.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 76.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 74.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 32c | 70.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 66c | 67.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575c…b6ebbacked Yes | 33c | 63.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 48.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 44.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 35.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 36c | 32.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 70c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 21.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 19.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 66c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.