Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Indoors Basel: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca4be6ead799c3067f84fab3b8c0c4ad50327abbfde7b7ae369ed277362b68d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Mensik, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Fonseca | 62c | 41,922$25,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,126.68 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +2,177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mensik | 37c | 16,224$6,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,055.59 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Mensik | 45c | 15,000$6,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,742.05 | 374 | 50%187 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8a…0863backed Mensik | 1c | 10,833$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Fonseca | 65c | 8,650$5,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,034.89 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mensik | 38c | 7,373$2,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,797.08 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Mensik | 0c | 6,999$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mensik | 39c | 4,500$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…7958backed Mensik | 1c | 4,101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Mensik | 1c | 3,300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Mensik | 38c | 3,000$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Mensik | 39c | 2,500$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Mensik | 39c | 2,500$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Mensik | 39c | 2,500$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Mensik | 39c | 2,500$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Mensik | 1c | 2,387$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Mensik | 4c | 2,020$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Mensik | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked Mensik | 38c | 1,500$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Mensik | 38c | 1,500$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Mensik | 38c | 1,500$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Fonseca | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.95 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Mensik | 20c | 1,400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b95…d040backed Mensik | 43c | 1,160$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…81d6backed Fonseca | 57c | 1,130$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…cc07backed Mensik | 43c | 1,050$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…c8acbacked Fonseca | 57c | 1,050$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…4375backed Mensik | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Mensik | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Mensik | 43c | 917.69$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.61 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mensik | 40c | 892.24$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.24 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mensik | 38c | 857$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.95 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Mensik | 39c | 750$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mensik | 42c | 587.47$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.58 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Mensik | 25c | 575.52$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.67 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Fonseca | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Fonseca | 59c | 341.14$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Mensik | 8c | 333.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Mensik | 42c | 304.33$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Fonseca | 59c | 300$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Mensik | 44c | 279.55$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Mensik | 41c | 232$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…e7b3backed Fonseca | 59c | 211.86$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Fonseca | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba3…e9bcbacked Fonseca | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Fonseca | 57c | 178.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Fonseca | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…d09bbacked Mensik | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0b…761bbacked Mensik | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…d367backed Mensik | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…0516backed Fonseca | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Mensik | 32c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf331…b030backed Mensik | 43c | 91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Mensik | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Mensik | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Fonseca | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Mensik | 34c | 49.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Mensik | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Fonseca | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…09ddbacked Mensik | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed Fonseca | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7f12backed Fonseca | 63c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Fonseca | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mensik | 44c | 27.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f44…4e56backed Fonseca | 59c | 17.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.