College Football · resolved market
Stanford vs. Miami
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca5650708e4ea4ed519211a3872948c8cae71d344ea0ac74977f97b3204be791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miamiof Stanford, Miami
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Stanford | 14c | 103,903$14,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,647.13 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Miami | 79c | 7,357$5,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.28 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Stanford | 4c | 4,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Stanford | 13c | 4,007$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.89 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…8a9fbacked Stanford | 19c | 3,775$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Stanford | 0c | 3,600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Stanford | 17c | 3,286$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.15 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Stanford | 4c | 2,171$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ef…5232backed Stanford | 12c | 2,090$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Stanford | 1c | 1,997$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b5…13dcbacked Stanford | 9c | 1,768$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Stanford | 9c | 1,333$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf304…3d3ebacked Stanford | 9c | 1,239$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…7c66backed Stanford | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Stanford | 15c | 1,000$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Stanford | 4c | 995.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Stanford | 13c | 900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Stanford | 16c | 867.27$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Stanford | 3c | 782.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…08fbbacked Stanford | 20c | 507.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…c017backed Miami | 77c | 494.75$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…1332backed Stanford | 14c | 406.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…63d6backed Stanford | 6c | 384.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Stanford | 4c | 367.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Stanford | 6c | 357.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…00fbbacked Stanford | 5c | 316$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…1aabbacked Stanford | 6c | 312.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…1930backed Stanford | 16c | 306.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…db8ebacked Stanford | 9c | 225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…02b5backed Stanford | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Stanford | 11c | 180.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Stanford | 20c | 131.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Miami | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…55b1backed Stanford | 16c | 123.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Stanford | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Stanford | 18c | 84.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Stanford | 12c | 84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65c8…4b32backed Stanford | 19c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stanford vs. Miamithis page
- O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Miami (-30.5)Miami won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.