Club Brugge KV vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca676ea45c73fbd9f3173dafb09a52980c169f28cc60ab0b712466f0fe7dda59

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,299 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	78c	11,597$9,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,589.45	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	77c	3,625$2,805 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$819.86	597	41.7%249 W · 348 L	-18.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over	22c	3,000$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	107	48.6%52 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over	22c	2,064$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.12	122	49.2%60 W · 62 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a5…9dccbacked Over	38c	1,549$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.6	68	52.9%36 W · 32 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over	22c	1,518$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.02	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	64c	1,412$906 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505.78	1,511	40.2%608 W · 903 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Over	23c	1,304$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over	22c	799.98$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.99	144	47.2%68 W · 76 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over	23c	614.49$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.53	139	31.7%44 W · 95 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Over	23c	600$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	23c	585.44$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.65	397	46.9%186 W · 211 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over	22c	450$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	213	54%115 W · 98 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over	22c	450$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	167	53.3%89 W · 78 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	78c	435$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.7	108	45.4%49 W · 59 L	-9.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over	22c	400$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	449	55.7%250 W · 199 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over	22c	360$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	178	55.6%99 W · 79 L	+7.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over	24c	300$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	51	23.5%12 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over	22c	300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	283	57.2%162 W · 121 L	+15.2wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over	22c	300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	135	52.6%71 W · 64 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over	22c	300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	127	48%61 W · 66 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over	23c	278.7$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.1	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	23c	260.87$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	152	36.8%56 W · 96 L	+7.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over	22c	222.14$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.87	172	51.7%89 W · 83 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under	78c	220$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.48	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over	23c	217.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+6.9wins	+0.10per pick	31cpaid	+48.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	187	54.5%102 W · 85 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Over	23c	181.28$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.69	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Under	66c	180$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.53	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over	22c	170$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	115	48.7%56 W · 59 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over	22c	170$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	133	52.6%70 W · 63 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over	22c	170$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over	22c	170$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	114	49.1%56 W · 58 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over	22c	170$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	135	48.9%66 W · 69 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over	22c	170$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	162	51.2%83 W · 79 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over	22c	169.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	109	49.5%54 W · 55 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over	22c	160$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	156	51.3%80 W · 76 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd573…f99ebacked Over	23c	150.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+2.6wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over	22c	150$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	183	50.3%92 W · 91 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over	22c	150$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	142	47.2%67 W · 75 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	51c	120.27$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.65	397	43.3%172 W · 225 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over	22c	120$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	117	47%55 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over	22c	120$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	107	53.3%57 W · 50 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over	22c	120$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over	22c	120$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	113	50.4%57 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over	22c	120$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	118	50%59 W · 59 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Under	77c	113.12$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.1	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad7…c097backed Over	23c	108.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+3.2wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over	23c	108.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	70	27.1%19 W · 51 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over	24c	104.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Under	78c	104.16$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.92	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-3.8wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-22%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	119	47.1%56 W · 63 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.2	116	53.4%62 W · 54 L	+5.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	31c	87.95$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.48	424	38%161 W · 263 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Over	23c	85.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked Over	22c	80$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	88	50%44 W · 44 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b79…d63fbacked Over	50c	79.3$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.65	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	54c	72.6$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	+5.4wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over	23c	67.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.59	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-7.4wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Under	78c	64.1$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-4.4wins	-0.13per pick	62cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	115	48.7%56 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Over	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	132	48.5%64 W · 68 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	119	52.1%62 W · 57 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	119	49.6%59 W · 60 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Over	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	114	49.1%56 W · 58 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Over	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	151	53%80 W · 71 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	122	49.2%60 W · 62 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Over	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82c0…02fdbacked Over	30c	56.67$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	21cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x309d…4287backed Under	78c	50.67$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.15	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over	23c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	116	45.7%53 W · 63 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over	48c	49.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.21per pick	61cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under	47c	48.1$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.29	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+3.6wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38a3…b461backed Over	23c	44.14$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under	76c	36.94$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.87	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd485…871fbacked Under	78c	35$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.7	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+3.6wins	+0.20per pick	52cpaid	+45.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	77c	33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.59	650	50.2%326 W · 324 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under	67c	31.2$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30e1…0badbacked Under	77c	25.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	78cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed Under	78c	24.65$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.42	88	68.2%60 W · 28 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	76cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Under	57c	20.5$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.88	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-38%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x19e7…e762backed Under	77c	17.94$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.13	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Under	78c	17.72$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.9	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+3.7wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Under	78c	17.23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.79	53	64.2%34 W · 19 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e21…4dccbacked Under	62c	17.23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.63	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Under	78c	13.05$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.87	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-5.0wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x51dd…c727backed Under	78c	13$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.86	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Club Brugge KV vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5this page
Club Brugge KV vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Club Brugge KV vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Over won
Club Brugge KV vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Over won
Club Brugge KV vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Club Brugge KV vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event