Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca6e2aed31fa0173671ee61391dcfb0cffe2d6c8462649bba6f56be169a49904
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 71c | 3,989$2,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.82 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f9…c741backed Yes | 30c | 3,035$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 19c | 2,272$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.71 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,064$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 64c | 1,003$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Yes | 58c | 719.71$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked No | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 36c | 327.42$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.87 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 35c | 307.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 44c | 296.73$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Yes | 35c | 255.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 187.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 42c | 168.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 63c | 154.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 54c | 140$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 64c | 136.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 65c | 130.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 64c | 119.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7053…25e4backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Yes | 35c | 108.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 65c | 100.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 55c | 98.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…6d23backed Yes | 36c | 88.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 55c | 79.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Yes | 17c | 67.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 55c | 62.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 38c | 54.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 42c | 50.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Yes | 36c | 42.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95ad…4eebbacked No | 68c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 58c | 36.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 50c | 35.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 37c | 34.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 51c | 32.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 58c | 24.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 63c | 20.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 62c | 17.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 80c | 14.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will New England Revolution vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?No won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.