Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca7b4a42d39b13fc68383691e4166d0ace33eb268fb8396a0dbab9e5871e7a68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 37c | 413.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.04 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 4c | 392.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed No | 27c | 392.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 8c | 333.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.26 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 26c | 305$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.33 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 14c | 211.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.08 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 60c | 210.66$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 189.41$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.55 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 174.69$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 159.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 27c | 127.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 124.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 121.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 102.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 51c | 99.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 97.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…f9d5backed No | 75c | 88.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 85.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 18c | 77.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…ab4cbacked No | 77c | 69.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 23c | 68.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc7…038cbacked Yes | 26c | 56.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 79c | 55.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 53.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 71c | 50.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 38c | 48.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 46.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 40.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 36.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 36.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 36.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 30.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 27.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 51c | 27.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 26.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c3…38bcbacked No | 61c | 26.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…a510backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 23.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 18.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 63c | 16.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 74c | 14.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.