Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecefdf26f2663dd7024cfccef9e559013a60ae56c59da916eef6d948c525765e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc82…cac7backed Yes | 24c | 418.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 24c | 284.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 69c | 279.7$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 13c | 222.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 192.76$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 183.16$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 175$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 66c | 154.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 149.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 77c | 135.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 9c | 133.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 116.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 66c | 99.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1338…fd2cbacked Yes | 39c | 96.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…a684backed Yes | 12c | 95.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 92.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 38c | 91.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 72c | 89.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 27c | 83.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…c40bbacked Yes | 13c | 81.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 80c | 81.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 80.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 74.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 38c | 74.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 20c | 74.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 25c | 73.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 73.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 22c | 61.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 58.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 26c | 58.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 78c | 57.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 55.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 42c | 53.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 52.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 22c | 50.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 76c | 47.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 58c | 47.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 41.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 31c | 38.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 45c | 31.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…6534backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c5…2a38backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…1d52backed No | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 46c | 26.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 19.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 64c | 19.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ef…5482backed Yes | 59c | 19.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc7…038cbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 75c | 18.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…a7f7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.