Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac2a0e5fd9ea8b277cc7f96905817a3f45ad8f9eedfcae7eac1d078df1e7a4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 3c | 1,048$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 36c | 558.94$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 13c | 391.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 287.29$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 77c | 286.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 222.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 187.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 173.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 170.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 56c | 150.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 46c | 102.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 54c | 92.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 53c | 86.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 69.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 53c | 67.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 47c | 63.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 62.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 62.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 62.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 61.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 30c | 53.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 42c | 49.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 48.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30e…cf53backed Yes | 44c | 45.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 23c | 44.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 48c | 41.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 40.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 57c | 37.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 36.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 56c | 34.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 44c | 33.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 61c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 67c | 32.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 45c | 30.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 55c | 30.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 76c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed No | 53c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 59c | 26.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…d01bbacked Yes | 44c | 23.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 48c | 22.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 17.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.