Fifa International · resolved market
Scotland vs. Japan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca80213aca1554f1b5c1d2af792ad77ce7f1f7c3db3ca4c1b2a474e1f8049a7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 22c | 9,212$2,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.21 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 8,194$6,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.27 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 21c | 2,230$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.05 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 79c | 2,200$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471 | 214 | 44.9%96 W · 118 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 16c | 1,500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 77c | 1,041$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.98 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 22c | 906.51$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.26 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 78c | 818.05$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.03 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 78c | 813.58$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.27 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 25c | 603.8$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 463.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 3c | 374.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 11c | 329.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 80c | 298.01$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 72c | 285.49$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 77c | 283.29$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 167 | 58.7%98 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Over | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 13%13 W · 87 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 23c | 249.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 23c | 224.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 78c | 177.43$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 15c | 144.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 79c | 133.77$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 95.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 79c | 90.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 24c | 83.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 79.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Under | 78c | 79.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 154 | 48.1%74 W · 80 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Over | 27c | 76.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 23c | 74.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 76c | 70.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 73c | 55.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 71c | 51.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 80c | 29.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 341 | 44.3%151 W · 190 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 77c | 23.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Under | 77c | 18.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 79c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Scotland vs. Japan: O/U 3.5this page
- Scotland vs. Japan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Scotland vs. Japan: O/U 1.5Under won
- Scotland vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Under won
- Scotland vs. Japan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)Scotland won
- Spread: Scotland (-1.5)Japan won
- Spread: Scotland (-2.5)Japan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.