Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca912cb39fadfa0c17aed76926dd4df3f22c0377a303ffb45f04f0376d11cc08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,860 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 3,300$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.79 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 20c | 1,039$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.26 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 17c | 922.15$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.77 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 16c | 516.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 17c | 416.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 27c | 371.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 16c | 358.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Over | 74c | 347.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 9c | 223.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 20c | 170.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 18c | 119.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 13c | 92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 26c | 88.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 74c | 83.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Under | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 18c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Under | 29c | 65.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 62.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…884bbacked Over | 77c | 37.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 77c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…0a27backed Over | 74c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.