Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e144c4eb024ed8b7712f1f626dac1b0d818887e9ec8f7301f2ec3d8b1fc74df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 2,185$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.58 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 78c | 1,236$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.83 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 22c | 1,162$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.44 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 23c | 1,131$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.19 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 13c | 721.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 7c | 700$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +463.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 508.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 59c | 495$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 58c | 481.08$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.37 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 33c | 430.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.28 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 417.73$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.75 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 393.05$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.87 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…54cbbacked Over | 14c | 359.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…97d5backed Under | 80c | 324.06$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…14d9backed Over | 56c | 316.94$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 22c | 302$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 293.26$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.39 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a0…7a80backed Over | 67c | 293.06$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 44c | 267.55$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.23 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 22c | 218.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…aa8dbacked Under | 55c | 199.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 78c | 165$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 80c | 155.24$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Over | 14c | 140.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 42c | 123.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 38c | 113.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 37c | 101.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…f74cbacked Over | 41c | 95.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 21c | 86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 43c | 51.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…ffddbacked Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Over | 44c | 49.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 30c | 47.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Under | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 44c | 30.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…884bbacked Over | 56c | 28.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 80c | 26.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Under | 60c | 21.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Under | 55c | 21.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…abfbbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Under | 80c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.