Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ae25ef3e4df8ab5c972a8fc08a6573879918372b6fbb96a16d8c39edf0881da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,011 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,949.9 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 76c | 3,000$2,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,286.88 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 59c | 2,800$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Under | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 1,508$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.01 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.98 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 28c | 1,387$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.69 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 41c | 1,004$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.05 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 37c | 805.24$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.44 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked Over | 25c | 801.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 68c | 730.47$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 25c | 717.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.33 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 39c | 705.94$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.41 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Under | 59c | 662.68$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc341…2a60backed Over | 70c | 637.43$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 40c | 625$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 60c | 613.53$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.02 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…f78abacked Over | 38c | 383.28$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…54cbbacked Over | 27c | 370.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 25c | 351$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Over | 41c | 329.27$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 60c | 260$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 36c | 237$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…46adbacked Under | 62c | 215.58$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 30c | 207.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.05 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 62c | 204.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.04 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 75c | 189$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed3…983fbacked Under | 62c | 167.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 148.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 59c | 142.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 29c | 138.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 39c | 135$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…7736backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +246.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…a8b1backed Over | 35c | 95.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 39c | 92.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 62c | 87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 63c | 61.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Under | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…eb06backed Over | 36c | 59.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +174%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 64c | 54.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…abfbbacked Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…b718backed Over | 41c | 36.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 61c | 36.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Over | 33c | 35.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 41c | 29.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…4f3fbacked Over | 39c | 28.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 51c | 27.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Under | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 59c | 20.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 61c | 20.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9508…73d3backed Under | 62c | 19.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 59c | 17.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…2772backed Under | 74c | 14.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.