TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,092 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfdfc…bf06backed Yes52c4,336$2,255 inLost-$2,254.926651.5%34 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No48c1,898$910 inWon+$987.333,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed No48c1,759$844 inWon+$914.6820845.2%94 W · 114 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes51c910.99$465 inLost-$464.616,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c10…b6a4backed No49c765.31$375 inWon+$390.3111446.5%53 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No48c255.6$123 inWon+$132.912,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked No49c204.08$100 inWon+$104.0815639.1%61 W · 95 L-11.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a6b…abbfbacked No49c195.61$96 inWon+$99.761163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ffd…3ef3backed No49c148.98$73 inWon+$75.988558.8%50 W · 35 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes53c41.85$22 inLost-$22.1825248.8%123 W · 129 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed No49c39.62$20 inWon+$20.117248.6%35 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked No70c30$21 inWon+$931449.4%155 W · 159 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked No76c26.33$20 inWon+$6.325,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.