MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65f16668fc7672e35d5618df96414f7ac64da42860b647a34ae5feed5a476055

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $88,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,525 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over	57c	60,000$34,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34,199.89	1,414	49.5%700 W · 714 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	43c	40,070$17,233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,836.6	10,979	51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L	+139.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	44c	14,414$6,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,064.2	11,519	52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L	+213.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under	45c	5,571$2,512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,059.18	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Over	56c	4,449$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,499.96	115	40%46 W · 69 L	-7.1wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	55c	3,494$1,905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,904.92	3,041	48%1,461 W · 1,580 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	44c	3,082$1,341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,741.41	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under	51c	2,885$1,481 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,404.16	1,884	53%998 W · 886 L	+16.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under	43c	2,500$1,075 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,425	752	48.8%367 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	31c	2,438$758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.53	8,192	46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L	+38.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Under	43c	1,796$772 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,023.99	224	47.3%106 W · 118 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under	45c	1,465$659 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$805.5	203	50.7%103 W · 100 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Over	55c	1,455$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under	45c	1,352$608 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$743.34	2,310	52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L	+27.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	55c	1,304$711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710.91	6,999	50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	56c	1,228$683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.62	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	57c	1,161$662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.04	4,515	48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L	-46.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Under	43c	1,000$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$570	291	53.6%156 W · 135 L	+11.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Under	43c	1,000$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$570	284	52.5%149 W · 135 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	57c	975$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.75	1,635	49.3%806 W · 829 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over	53c	598.5$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.2	1,848	49.6%917 W · 931 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over	52c	580.43$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.82	460	48.5%223 W · 237 L	-12.1wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over	43c	475$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.25	301	50.8%153 W · 148 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Over	57c	438$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.66	187	41.2%77 W · 110 L	-11.2wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb68…4ef3backed Under	45c	428.22$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.52	59	40.7%24 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Under	43c	397.79$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.74	99	56.6%56 W · 43 L	+8.6wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	45c	299.2$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.56	495	40.2%199 W · 296 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	54c	250$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	5,471	50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under	43c	241$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.37	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3992…349cbacked Under	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	167	44.9%75 W · 92 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Over	57c	200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	240	59.2%142 W · 98 L	+18.3wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ab7…6978backed Over	43c	200$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	154	42.2%65 W · 89 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under	43c	200$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114	448	45.8%205 W · 243 L	+11.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Under	75c	200$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	282	45.7%129 W · 153 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under	44c	184.54$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.34	733	55.3%405 W · 328 L	+22.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under	44c	175.02$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.91	470	56.6%266 W · 204 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Over	57c	175$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.75	102	51%52 W · 50 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-13%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x237f…362ebacked Over	57c	170.98$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.46	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under	44c	148.89$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.37	527	50.1%264 W · 263 L	+19.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	55c	142.51$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.38	8,403	47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L	+76.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	27c	140$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.2	5,149	54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L	+231.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3ec…f645backed Over	53c	127.99$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.83	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-4.6wins	-0.27per pick	45cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under	45c	120.68$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.96	495	51.9%257 W · 238 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Under	43c	116.28$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.28	488	51.6%252 W · 236 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under	45c	116.25$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.5	425	51.8%220 W · 205 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under	43c	109.48$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.02	1,212	50%606 W · 606 L	+5.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Under	78c	108.19$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.8	182	72%131 W · 51 L	+12.7wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Under	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	164	39%64 W · 100 L	-12.2wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d18backed Under	44c	103.05$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.65	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Under	43c	97.33$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.48	292	50.7%148 W · 144 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Over	52c	92$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.84	554	48.2%267 W · 287 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c22…7b22backed Under	43c	90.19$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.41	71	49.3%35 W · 36 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bfc…c59abacked Under	71c	85.07$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.07	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+53.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Under	44c	77.29$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.9	331	48.6%161 W · 170 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Under	43c	69.77$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.77	461	52.1%240 W · 221 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Under	43c	69.77$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.77	233	57.5%134 W · 99 L	+22.2wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over	55c	67.22$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.97	214	49.5%106 W · 108 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1465…e0dbbacked Under	43c	59.35$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.83	146	44.5%65 W · 81 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	55c	58.5$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.18	3,509	51%1,789 W · 1,720 L	+53.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Under	43c	58.14$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.14	341	39.9%136 W · 205 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Over	52c	53.76$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.96	647	52.4%339 W · 308 L	+28.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Over	57c	51.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.12	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-6.3wins	-0.15per pick	34cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under	44c	47$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.32	118	52.5%62 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Under	43c	46.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.51	536	55.8%299 W · 237 L	+22.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	72c	40$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.2	5,812	43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L	-188.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Under	43c	34.88$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.88	462	55.8%258 W · 204 L	+21.3wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Under	74c	33.78$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.78	141	64.5%91 W · 50 L	+11.8wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	53c	32.94$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.45	2,995	47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L	+12.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under	44c	31.83$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.96	1,278	57%728 W · 550 L	+33.3wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under	43c	30.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.58	445	53.5%238 W · 207 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Under	45c	30.23$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.53	282	56.4%159 W · 123 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Over	55c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	348	46.8%163 W · 185 L	-12.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c7…c415backed Under	44c	29.1$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.28	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	+5.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under	43c	28.71$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	150	52.7%79 W · 71 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bbb…3179backed Over	58c	27.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x733c…521bbacked Under	44c	26.22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.76	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90f…a908backed Over	54c	20.37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	99	55.6%55 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNew York Yankees won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 2.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
Will the game go to extra innings?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event