MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9ffd56a2b37a016a19c5810bfadb78b498073596d0e0dc7b82367cdc6067d4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 39c | 69,444$26,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,833.11 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd67…ef90backed Under | 61c | 29,721$18,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,591.31 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 23,177$14,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,873.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 61c | 6,039$3,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,354.93 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 62c | 4,553$2,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.77 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 38c | 4,196$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.64 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x075d…58c1backed Under | 66c | 3,751$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 61c | 2,261$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.68 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 65c | 2,179$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.66 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 34c | 1,514$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 62c | 1,381$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 61c | 1,241$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.86 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 38c | 975$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.4 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 38c | 938.98$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.33 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Under | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 36c | 797.99$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.28 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…5909backed Under | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 672.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 9c | 640$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Over | 39c | 517.31$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.75 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 39c | 512.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 39c | 307.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 61c | 305.39$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Under | 61c | 303$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 61c | 298.12$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 39c | 179$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 61c | 178.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 62c | 161.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 39c | 153.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 39c | 153.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 61c | 143$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 62c | 141$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Over | 35c | 128$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Under | 63c | 79.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 62c | 57.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 65c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdd…4648backed Under | 61c | 40.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…dbf6backed Under | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Under | 64c | 30.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 39c | 30.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 62c | 23.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 62c | 23.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 62c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.