MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32f3f112e6601f145cc24ccc41678ec23a031f84e58b4263cc00c0b016219618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 31c | 2,141$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 2,048$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.12 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 1,813$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.05 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 1,151$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.7 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…3241backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 1,139$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 67c | 696.99$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 58c | 574.93$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…1a39backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Yankees | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 94.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed New York Yankees | 57c | 91.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed New York Yankees | 57c | 79.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 74c | 71.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed New York Yankees | 26c | 64.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 62c | 55.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8591…6e07backed New York Yankees | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Chicago Cubs | 74c | 52.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 26c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Yankees | 29c | 43.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 42.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 36.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked New York Yankees | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 66c | 21.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.