NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcae6160eb42b0d6e0d7401803b2d43f9052a5cdfe802b1528fb7a41c4d4e4423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 17,782$8,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,222.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Over | 52c | 6,891$3,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,583.14 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 4,723$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.34 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 4,398$2,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,438.11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 53c | 3,588$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.41 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 51c | 3,333$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 50c | 3,216$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.9 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 2,495$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.35 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 2,200$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 44c | 2,138$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.52 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 1,864$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.35 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 1,729$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.52 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 51c | 1,381$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.53 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 50c | 820$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 703.9$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.04 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 473$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.23 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 8c | 204.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 48c | 189.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 48c | 189.89$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 258 | 46.9%121 W · 137 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 48c | 89.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 48c | 75.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…7191backed Over | 50c | 58.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Over | 51c | 56.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 51c | 52.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 44c | 32.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 32.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…fbd1backed Under | 47c | 32.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 28.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 49c | 24.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Over | 51c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…aefcbacked Under | 57c | 20.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…edacbacked Under | 52c | 20.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. RocketsRockets won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Under won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.