Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaeb64fab1b281ad2ebdb53b77166eed7a60b543db0dec7501f714d9d2cd144c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 271.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.42 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 60c | 169$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 62c | 162.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 157.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 61c | 147.84$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 44c | 129.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 46c | 128.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 11c | 118.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 116.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 101$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 38c | 94.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 38c | 88.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 50c | 59.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 54.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 48.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcef1…5c6dbacked Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 41.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 57c | 39.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 43c | 37.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 37.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 36.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 36.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 42c | 35.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 57c | 34.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 66c | 33.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…a171backed Yes | 76c | 32.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 52c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 60c | 24.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 24.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 61c | 18.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.