Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Indoors Basel: Marcos Giron vs Denis Shapovalov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb35a8bfddeefc0449ab0ab91ee64886beec49b6d10d08257a7dfc81ebb14547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Giron, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7606…2836backed Giron | 60c | 114,173$68,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,473.89 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Shapovalov | 42c | 87,178$36,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,766.46 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Shapovalov | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Giron | 50c | 11,791$5,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,842.84 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Shapovalov | 57c | 9,814$5,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,258.14 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Giron | 50c | 5,852$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,914.64 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shapovalov | 49c | 4,948$2,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,525.39 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Shapovalov | 52c | 4,444$2,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.59 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Giron | 33c | 2,586$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.32 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Shapovalov | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.99 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Shapovalov | 51c | 1,174$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.8 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Giron | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Giron | 48c | 922.72$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed Giron | 57c | 851.97$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Shapovalov | 57c | 549.99$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.13 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Shapovalov | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Shapovalov | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.12 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Giron | 40c | 488.8$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.61 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Shapovalov | 55c | 449.99$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Giron | 28c | 430.62$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Giron | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Shapovalov | 40c | 404.12$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.47 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…4c5ebacked Giron | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Giron | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…59b5backed Shapovalov | 41c | 246.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.51 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Giron | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Giron | 11c | 221.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Shapovalov | 28c | 213.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.93 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Shapovalov | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Giron | 37c | 208.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Giron | 54c | 207$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Shapovalov | 58c | 206.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Shapovalov | 49c | 200.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.28 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Giron | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Shapovalov | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Shapovalov | 56c | 176.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Shapovalov | 58c | 163.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…da0ebacked Shapovalov | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Shapovalov | 55c | 136.54$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Giron | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Shapovalov | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Shapovalov | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 284 | 51.1%145 W · 139 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Shapovalov | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Shapovalov | 58c | 97.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Shapovalov | 56c | 82.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Giron | 44c | 69.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Giron | 45c | 69.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Shapovalov | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Shapovalov | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Giron | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Shapovalov | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Shapovalov | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Shapovalov | 57c | 44.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bef…3cc4backed Shapovalov | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…7025backed Giron | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…a2f9backed Giron | 63c | 36.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Giron | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Shapovalov | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…2ee8backed Giron | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Giron | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Shapovalov | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…de71backed Shapovalov | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Giron | 55c | 27.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Giron | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.