Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb93e13a8d7567eceafd8fab2e1ef9f4ff02914cbac54faf8ced09cac87b8c20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Southampton FCof Watford FC, Southampton FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c8a…3bedbacked Watford FC | 56c | 7,761$4,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,322.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Southampton FC | 46c | 4,941$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,667.46 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Southampton FC | 46c | 3,276$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.31 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Southampton FC | 43c | 685$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.45 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Watford FC | 39c | 644.09$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Southampton FC | 51c | 638.2$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.33 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Watford FC | 22c | 500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Watford FC | 11c | 473.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Watford FC | 55c | 358.59$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.36 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Southampton FC | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Southampton FC | 43c | 206.05$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.37 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Watford FC | 57c | 86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Southampton FC | 45c | 79.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Watford FC | 57c | 43.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Watford FC | 57c | 43.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Watford FC | 57c | 35.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Watford FC | 57c | 29.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Southampton FC | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 125 | 54.4%68 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Watford FC won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.