Premier League · resolved market
Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb48575cbd98ef60b5d6bbaf2287a5dc131c25e0a81642c308d75dc2458f79c00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 4,527$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.56 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ca…ac4cbacked Under | 73c | 3,402$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…92c1backed Under | 48c | 2,032$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 1,261$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.26 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 50c | 1,026$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.82 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 54c | 991.44$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.14 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 23c | 900$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 43c | 813.95$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.95 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 77c | 780.22$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.93 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 754.75$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.96 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 44c | 500.4$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked Over | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Under | 49c | 367.35$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 77c | 337.91$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -10.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 34c | 310.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.83 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 45c | 301$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.55 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 23c | 283.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.86 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Under | 67c | 210.97$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Under | 55c | 204.6$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 24c | 170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 6c | 163.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 7c | 160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +324.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 77c | 154.44$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 65c | 151.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 33c | 144$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…3a83backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 25c | 91.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 33c | 83.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed6c…4eb1backed Under | 50c | 59.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Over | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 34c | 46.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 59c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 77c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 67c | 37.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30f…ab88backed Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Over | 76c | 30.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 37c | 27.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Over | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 43c | 25.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 46c | 23.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…b1fbbacked Over | 78c | 16.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Watford FC won
- Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.