Premier League · resolved market
Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce22cece01b02c325d1146f3ea0da3856a4d5b86c935489b3ee4933c80954fc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked Over | 55c | 2,600$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 2,413$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5952…db2fbacked Under | 13c | 1,552$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 74c | 1,269$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 31c | 1,264$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.77 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 758.14$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.58 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked Over | 56c | 660.71$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.71 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 471$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.07 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 45c | 399.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 56c | 377.54$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.12 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 44c | 352.08$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.91 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 74c | 306.16$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked Over | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…fcb2backed Over | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 132$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 531 | 34.5%183 W · 348 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 45c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 74c | 63.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 37c | 59.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 37c | 59.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…55f7backed Over | 55c | 54.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 23c | 48.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -10.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…095bbacked Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…fbe1backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 45c | 33.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 55c | 32.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 45c | 27.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Over | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c46…7aa1backed Over | 56c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 71c | 24.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Watford FC won
- Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.