Premier League · resolved market
Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5eb44923e73d17382fe6717498a4824a2a6c6969224812fa88344c18d595f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 8,952$2,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.29 | 773 | 42.8%331 W · 442 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 3,173$2,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.37 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 73c | 2,808$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.28 | 914 | 35.3%323 W · 591 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…540abacked Under | 60c | 2,158$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 62c | 2,107$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.64 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Under | 72c | 1,500$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.19 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 38c | 1,315$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.76 | 1,690 | 34.9%589 W · 1,101 L | -33.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 47c | 875.61$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.4 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 15c | 656.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 1,244 | 49.4%615 W · 629 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Under | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 79cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 67c | 567.16$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.16 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 39c | 548.14$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.52 | 504 | 50%252 W · 252 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…adadbacked Under | 65c | 460.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.77 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 72c | 433.12$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 598 | 47.7%285 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1372…4ce0backed Under | 71c | 424.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 73c | 363.99$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…470dbacked Over | 32c | 269.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 56c | 260$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Over | 7c | 200.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1057…1636backed Over | 45c | 163.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 144$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 593 | 32.9%195 W · 398 L | -30.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 104.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 77c | 91.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 78c | 83.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 78c | 80.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe9…0ac5backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Under | 69c | 66.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 54c | 56.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 78c | 34.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 68c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Watford FC won
- Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.