Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbc9468496a975bccdc83b0d2c6f66d8070986cce524722e4db2e409bbf410c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 486.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 33c | 218.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 179.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 27c | 117.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 88.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 74.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 68.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 28c | 63.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 57.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 66c | 52.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 65c | 45.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 44.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 43.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…5dc9backed No | 71c | 37.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 66c | 32.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…fb44backed No | 72c | 32.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 73c | 27.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 26.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 23.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 66c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 18.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 14.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed No | 79c | 13.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.