Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadeeed1ea70ab6533208cb6619ba56285bfcfe4c78bb445272022ef4bf821e1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 34c | 194.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 48c | 179.59$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 48c | 167$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 18c | 166.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 25c | 149.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 133$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 77c | 128.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 118.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 112.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e3…17e1backed Yes | 50c | 109.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 106.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 44c | 101.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 24c | 94.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 94.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…225bbacked No | 49c | 93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 47c | 90.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 25c | 74.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 56c | 66.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 44c | 64.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 61.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 47c | 60.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes | 51c | 57.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 57c | 55.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 50c | 51.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 67c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 48.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…5f75backed Yes | 50c | 45.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 45c | 44.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 43c | 42.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 45c | 40.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 49c | 40.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…3584backed Yes | 48c | 39.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 66c | 38.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 36.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x074f…6abfbacked Yes | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 33.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked Yes | 47c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 33.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 57c | 32.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 47c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 31.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 66c | 30.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Yes | 50c | 29.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 77c | 28.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 39c | 28.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 58c | 27.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 79c | 24.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…439dbacked No | 49c | 22.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 58c | 21.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…885cbacked No | 52c | 20.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 58c | 19.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 17.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.