Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbcc2bd74086752e8aecc57dc7047a2508d370cafeccd8de17814dabb7e9bcf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 543.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.82 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 321.15$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 287.31$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.75 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 233.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 21c | 217.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 216.04$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 199.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 193.44$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 38c | 183.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 160.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 156.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 145$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 140.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 138$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 135$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 60c | 123.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 50c | 115$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 45c | 112.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 87.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 79c | 83.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 64c | 82.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 75.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 35c | 69.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 62.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 59c | 61.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d0…1515backed Yes | 27c | 61.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 59.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 36c | 54.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 27c | 48.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 38.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 63c | 35.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…1c95backed Yes | 35c | 35.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 35.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 49c | 29.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 71c | 28.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Yes | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 75c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed No | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…aadbbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 65c | 15.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.